Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15VW172

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15VW172   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:42 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     43 observations of     43
# Arc:   3.08y
# First observation: 2014/11/17
#  Last observation: 2017/12/16
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000046   0.020243  -0.000001   0.000340   0.022184   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    10.07 DOF:     80 RMS:  0.09
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.23    0.22
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.368519E-05  2.029552E-02  7.289724E-07  3.414504E-04  2.226649E-02 -4.978823E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5750E-13 -3.2175E-13  2.2752E-15 -4.4029E-15 -1.5559E-13 -4.5936E-12
 -3.2175E-13  5.8381E-13 -4.9701E-15  9.9027E-15  3.0835E-13  1.0266E-11
  2.2752E-15 -4.9701E-15  1.4778E-13 -8.6772E-14 -3.0522E-15 -9.8190E-14
 -4.4029E-15  9.9027E-15 -8.6772E-14  6.6535E-14  5.4050E-15  1.9868E-13
 -1.5559E-13  3.0835E-13 -3.0522E-15  5.4050E-15  2.6424E-13  5.7555E-12
 -4.5936E-12  1.0266E-11 -9.8190E-14  1.9868E-13  5.7555E-12  2.0527E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -1.151591   48.115038   -0.109354   -0.019618   -0.983218  2456978.777218
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2456970.5000  =  2014/11/09
Mean Anomaly:          217.92599 +/-     0.763
Argument of Peri:       95.46672 +/-     0.762
Long of Asc Node:       97.63028 +/-     0.021
Inclination:             1.48463 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.04143504 +/-    0.0004
Semi-Major Axis:     44.41435088 +/-    0.0029
Time of Perihelion: 2499637.8380 +/-     229.2
Perihelion:          42.57404043 +/-    0.0182
Aphelion:            46.25466132 +/-    0.0182
Period (y)              296.0010 +/-      0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           30.54992732 +/-    0.0007
Ecliptic Y           34.23519257 +/-    0.0008
Ecliptic Z           -0.90257968 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00190244 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT         0.00161619 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00004331 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   45.89293105 +/-    0.0007
Geocenter to KBO     44.91053927 +/-    0.0010
# Hcoef:  8.09

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VW172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VW172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2014 11  17.27644  03 03 56.926  +16 07 10.01  25.1r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  17.38513  03 03 56.405  +16 07 08.05  24.3r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  17.49897  03 03 55.897  +16 07 05.90  24.1r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  19.28749  03 03 47.818  +16 06 33.20  25.2r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2014 11  23.39103  03 03 29.463  +16 05 19.22  24.4r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 08  11.59273  03 12 53.293  +16 45 47.92  25.1w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 09  06.62350  03 12 47.469  +16 44 51.05  25.2w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 09  12.51312  03 12 38.220  +16 44 07.43  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  07.43992  03 11 30.482  +16 39 14.65  24.7w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  07.44703  03 11 30.462  +16 39 14.70  24.9w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  08.45165  03 11 26.884  +16 38 59.60  24.6w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 10  08.51072  03 11 26.668  +16 38 58.82  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.35903  03 09 21.703  +16 30 28.81  24.6r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.40112  03 09 21.518  +16 30 28.16  24.5r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  07.44330  03 09 21.320  +16 30 27.30  24.3r 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  10.52886  03 09 07.193  +16 29 30.82  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  17.37547  03 08 35.857  +16 27 26.19  24.6w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 11  17.42215  03 08 35.627  +16 27 25.36  24.6w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  06.38432  03 07 12.632  +16 22 00.71  25.2w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  13.31874  03 06 45.290  +16 20 15.96  25.0w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2015 12  13.37723  03 06 45.068  +16 20 15.24  24.6w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 01  01.37186  03 05 44.050  +16 16 29.90  24.9w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 01  07.31862  03 05 30.069  +16 15 41.27  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  04.29505  03 05 04.334  +16 14 42.99  25.0w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  04.30157  03 05 04.330  +16 14 43.06  25.4w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 02  10.28486  03 05 07.953  +16 15 08.23  25.0w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 09  06.60560  03 17 23.040  +17 04 00.80  25.3w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 09  26.59656  03 16 41.166  +17 00 57.89  25.2w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  10.40230  03 15 55.903  +16 57 51.63  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  10.46065  03 15 55.680  +16 57 50.69  24.9w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  27.49100  03 14 46.459  +16 53 13.68  24.9w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 10  27.49679  03 14 46.444  +16 53 13.59  25.5w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  02.59707  03 14 19.265  +16 51 26.55  25.0w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  02.60285  03 14 19.242  +16 51 26.45  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 11  03.51606  03 14 15.130  +16 51 10.33  24.8w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 12  24.29598  03 10 41.761  +16 37 39.89  24.9w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2016 12  29.36878  03 10 26.475  +16 36 45.46  25.3w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  01.26608  03 10 18.589  +16 36 18.01  24.6w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  02.37586  03 10 15.719  +16 36 08.16  25.5w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  02.39822  03 10 15.663  +16 36 07.95  25.1w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  26.27054  03 09 38.389  +16 34 16.85  24.4w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 01  26.28489  03 09 38.378  +16 34 16.83  24.3w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      
2017 12  16.38715  03 15 48.375  +16 58 54.10  25.2w 15VW172   568  C~2nwF      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.10
     2   0.0003     -7.76    -0.13       0.19     0.00
     3   0.0006    -15.39     0.08       0.15    -0.11
     4   0.0055   -136.31    -0.11       0.92    -0.04
     5   0.0167   -410.98     0.02       3.05    -0.05
     6   0.7319   8059.96    -0.08     138.69     0.03
     7   0.8031   7964.05    -0.09     106.08     0.03
     8   0.8193   7824.17    -0.02      99.37     0.03
     9   0.8875   6806.82    -0.04      76.84    -0.03
    10   0.8875   6806.55     0.08      76.97     0.09
    11   0.8903   6752.91    -0.06      76.17    -0.05
    12   0.8904   6749.71    -0.02      76.25     0.04
    13   0.9722   4880.69     0.01      67.93    -0.01
    14   0.9723   4877.95     0.19      68.03     0.06
    15   0.9724   4874.98     0.13      67.97    -0.02
    16   0.9808   4663.98    -0.01      68.49    -0.01
    17   0.9996   4196.11     0.06      70.50     0.01
    18   0.9997   4192.70    -0.12      70.60     0.08
    19   1.0516   2954.85    -0.05      82.74     0.06
    20   1.0706   2547.58     0.02      89.36    -0.04
    21   1.0708   2544.31     0.11      89.54     0.07
    22   1.1228   1637.64    -0.03     113.28     0.15
    23   1.1391   1430.69    -0.23     121.78    -0.07
    24   1.2157   1058.33    -0.01     167.61     0.06
    25   1.2157   1058.30    -0.08     167.70     0.13
    26   1.2321   1115.39     0.22     177.54    -0.17
    27   1.8051  12091.98    -0.00     174.81    -0.01
    28   1.8599  11462.48     0.08     154.77     0.08
    29   1.8977  10785.09     0.12     144.85     0.07
    30   1.8978  10781.74     0.05     144.78     0.01
    31   1.9445   9747.97    -0.02     138.54    -0.04
    32   1.9445   9747.73     0.14     138.51    -0.07
    33   1.9612   9342.31    -0.19     138.17     0.01
    34   1.9612   9341.97    -0.14     138.16     0.00
    35   1.9637   9280.65     0.05     138.21     0.03
    36   2.1027   6106.14     0.06     173.22     0.06
    37   2.1166   5879.69    -0.21     179.81    -0.07
    38   2.1245   5763.04    -0.04     183.84    -0.03
    39   2.1276   5720.62    -0.02     185.45    -0.01
    40   2.1276   5719.79     0.01     185.47    -0.03
    41   2.1930   5173.44     0.11     222.80    -0.02
    42   2.1930   5173.28     0.08     222.83    -0.02
    43   3.0804  10697.00    -0.05     233.57    -0.11

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15VW172    quality flag:3

Type:      CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL

axisobj        44.731    44.738    44.723
ecceobj         0.033     0.033     0.033
incobj          1.485     1.485     1.485
qmin           41.902    41.879    41.913
qmax           47.133    47.157    47.100
amean          44.417    44.427    44.410
amin           44.072    44.074    44.065
amax           44.775    44.779    44.763
emean           0.038     0.039     0.038
emin            0.023     0.024     0.023
emax            0.053     0.053     0.052
imean           0.600     0.599     0.601
imin            0.214     0.213     0.212
imax            0.882     0.880     0.885
excite_mean     0.040     0.040     0.040
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.105     3.105     3.105

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       173.8     173.3     173.7
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0