The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VW172 # Created Mon Apr 28 01:10:44 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 43 observations of 43 # Arc: 3.08y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2017/12/16 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000046 0.020243 -0.000001 0.000340 0.022184 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 10.07 DOF: 80 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.23 0.22 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.368519E-05 2.029552E-02 7.289724E-07 3.414504E-04 2.226649E-02 -4.978823E-04 # Covariance matrix: 2.5750E-13 -3.2175E-13 2.2752E-15 -4.4029E-15 -1.5559E-13 -4.5936E-12 -3.2175E-13 5.8381E-13 -4.9701E-15 9.9027E-15 3.0835E-13 1.0266E-11 2.2752E-15 -4.9701E-15 1.4778E-13 -8.6772E-14 -3.0522E-15 -9.8190E-14 -4.4029E-15 9.9027E-15 -8.6772E-14 6.6535E-14 5.4050E-15 1.9868E-13 -1.5559E-13 3.0835E-13 -3.0522E-15 5.4050E-15 2.6424E-13 5.7555E-12 -4.5936E-12 1.0266E-11 -9.8190E-14 1.9868E-13 5.7555E-12 2.0527E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.151591 48.115038 -0.109354 -0.019618 -0.983218 2456978.777218 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456970.5000 = 2014/11/09 Mean Anomaly: 217.92599 +/- 0.763 Argument of Peri: 95.46672 +/- 0.762 Long of Asc Node: 97.63028 +/- 0.021 Inclination: 1.48463 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.04143504 +/- 0.0004 Semi-Major Axis: 44.41435088 +/- 0.0029 Time of Perihelion: 2499637.8380 +/- 229.2 Perihelion: 42.57404043 +/- 0.0182 Aphelion: 46.25466132 +/- 0.0182 Period (y) 296.0010 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 30.54992732 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 34.23519257 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Z -0.90257968 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00190244 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00161619 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00004331 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 45.89293105 +/- 0.0007 Geocenter to KBO 44.91053927 +/- 0.0010 # Hcoef: 8.09
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VW172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VW172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.27644 03 03 56.926 +16 07 10.01 25.1r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 17.38513 03 03 56.405 +16 07 08.05 24.3r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 17.49897 03 03 55.897 +16 07 05.90 24.1r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 19.28749 03 03 47.818 +16 06 33.20 25.2r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 23.39103 03 03 29.463 +16 05 19.22 24.4r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 08 11.59273 03 12 53.293 +16 45 47.92 25.1w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 09 06.62350 03 12 47.469 +16 44 51.05 25.2w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 09 12.51312 03 12 38.220 +16 44 07.43 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.43992 03 11 30.482 +16 39 14.65 24.7w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.44703 03 11 30.462 +16 39 14.70 24.9w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.45165 03 11 26.884 +16 38 59.60 24.6w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.51072 03 11 26.668 +16 38 58.82 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.35903 03 09 21.703 +16 30 28.81 24.6r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.40112 03 09 21.518 +16 30 28.16 24.5r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.44330 03 09 21.320 +16 30 27.30 24.3r 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 10.52886 03 09 07.193 +16 29 30.82 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.37547 03 08 35.857 +16 27 26.19 24.6w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.42215 03 08 35.627 +16 27 25.36 24.6w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 06.38432 03 07 12.632 +16 22 00.71 25.2w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.31874 03 06 45.290 +16 20 15.96 25.0w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.37723 03 06 45.068 +16 20 15.24 24.6w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 01.37186 03 05 44.050 +16 16 29.90 24.9w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 07.31862 03 05 30.069 +16 15 41.27 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.29505 03 05 04.334 +16 14 42.99 25.0w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.30157 03 05 04.330 +16 14 43.06 25.4w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 10.28486 03 05 07.953 +16 15 08.23 25.0w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 06.60560 03 17 23.040 +17 04 00.80 25.3w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 26.59656 03 16 41.166 +17 00 57.89 25.2w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.40230 03 15 55.903 +16 57 51.63 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.46065 03 15 55.680 +16 57 50.69 24.9w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 27.49100 03 14 46.459 +16 53 13.68 24.9w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 27.49679 03 14 46.444 +16 53 13.59 25.5w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 02.59707 03 14 19.265 +16 51 26.55 25.0w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 02.60285 03 14 19.242 +16 51 26.45 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 03.51606 03 14 15.130 +16 51 10.33 24.8w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 12 24.29598 03 10 41.761 +16 37 39.89 24.9w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2016 12 29.36878 03 10 26.475 +16 36 45.46 25.3w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 01.26608 03 10 18.589 +16 36 18.01 24.6w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 02.37586 03 10 15.719 +16 36 08.16 25.5w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 02.39822 03 10 15.663 +16 36 07.95 25.1w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 26.27054 03 09 38.389 +16 34 16.85 24.4w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 26.28489 03 09 38.378 +16 34 16.83 24.3w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF 2017 12 16.38715 03 15 48.375 +16 58 54.10 25.2w 15VW172 568 C~2nwF
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.10
2 0.0003 -7.76 -0.13 0.19 0.00
3 0.0006 -15.39 0.08 0.15 -0.11
4 0.0055 -136.31 -0.11 0.92 -0.04
5 0.0167 -410.98 0.02 3.05 -0.05
6 0.7319 8059.96 -0.08 138.69 0.03
7 0.8031 7964.05 -0.09 106.08 0.03
8 0.8193 7824.17 -0.02 99.37 0.03
9 0.8875 6806.82 -0.04 76.84 -0.03
10 0.8875 6806.55 0.08 76.97 0.09
11 0.8903 6752.91 -0.06 76.17 -0.05
12 0.8904 6749.71 -0.02 76.25 0.04
13 0.9722 4880.69 0.01 67.93 -0.01
14 0.9723 4877.95 0.19 68.03 0.06
15 0.9724 4874.98 0.13 67.97 -0.02
16 0.9808 4663.98 -0.01 68.49 -0.01
17 0.9996 4196.11 0.06 70.50 0.01
18 0.9997 4192.70 -0.12 70.60 0.08
19 1.0516 2954.85 -0.05 82.74 0.06
20 1.0706 2547.58 0.02 89.36 -0.04
21 1.0708 2544.31 0.11 89.54 0.07
22 1.1228 1637.64 -0.03 113.28 0.15
23 1.1391 1430.69 -0.23 121.78 -0.07
24 1.2157 1058.33 -0.01 167.61 0.06
25 1.2157 1058.30 -0.08 167.70 0.13
26 1.2321 1115.39 0.22 177.54 -0.17
27 1.8051 12091.98 -0.00 174.81 -0.01
28 1.8599 11462.48 0.08 154.77 0.08
29 1.8977 10785.09 0.12 144.85 0.07
30 1.8978 10781.74 0.05 144.78 0.01
31 1.9445 9747.97 -0.02 138.54 -0.04
32 1.9445 9747.73 0.14 138.51 -0.07
33 1.9612 9342.31 -0.19 138.17 0.01
34 1.9612 9341.97 -0.14 138.16 0.00
35 1.9637 9280.65 0.05 138.21 0.03
36 2.1027 6106.14 0.06 173.22 0.06
37 2.1166 5879.69 -0.21 179.81 -0.07
38 2.1245 5763.04 -0.04 183.84 -0.03
39 2.1276 5720.62 -0.02 185.45 -0.01
40 2.1276 5719.79 0.01 185.47 -0.03
41 2.1930 5173.44 0.11 222.80 -0.02
42 2.1930 5173.28 0.08 222.83 -0.02
43 3.0804 10697.00 -0.05 233.57 -0.11
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VW172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 44.731 44.738 44.723 ecceobj 0.033 0.033 0.033 incobj 1.485 1.485 1.485 qmin 41.902 41.879 41.913 qmax 47.133 47.157 47.100 amean 44.417 44.427 44.410 amin 44.072 44.074 44.065 amax 44.775 44.779 44.763 emean 0.038 0.039 0.038 emin 0.023 0.024 0.023 emax 0.053 0.053 0.052 imean 0.600 0.599 0.601 imin 0.214 0.213 0.212 imax 0.882 0.880 0.885 excite_mean 0.040 0.040 0.040 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.105 3.105 3.105 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 173.8 173.3 173.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0