The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15VY172 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:42 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 47 observations of 47 # Arc: 10.12y # First observation: 2014/11/17 # Last observation: 2024/12/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 12.50 DOF: 88 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.27 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.525709E-05 2.264701E-02 3.884574E-07 4.945823E-04 2.340477E-02 -4.026957E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.5807E-13 -1.0375E-13 2.4644E-15 -2.1791E-15 -1.1978E-14 -4.1702E-13 -1.0375E-13 9.0464E-14 -2.2370E-15 2.0324E-15 -1.1941E-15 3.8895E-13 2.4644E-15 -2.2370E-15 5.6594E-14 -1.1744E-14 -2.6960E-16 -1.0140E-14 -2.1791E-15 2.0324E-15 -1.1744E-14 5.4883E-15 -1.8168E-16 9.3447E-15 -1.1978E-14 -1.1941E-15 -2.6960E-16 -1.8168E-16 9.4517E-14 -3.4651E-14 -4.1702E-13 3.8895E-13 -1.0140E-14 9.3447E-15 -3.4651E-14 1.7882E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -1.247235 48.147171 -0.110701 -0.021246 -0.983020 2456978.885908 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456978.5000 = 2014/11/17 Mean Anomaly: 335.83271 +/- 0.088 Argument of Peri: 342.00216 +/- 0.096 Long of Asc Node: 92.48549 +/- 0.004 Inclination: 1.74889 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.04140928 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 45.41032437 +/- 0.0028 Time of Perihelion: 2464481.8611 +/- 29.0 Perihelion: 43.52991541 +/- 0.0031 Aphelion: 47.29073334 +/- 0.0033 Period (y) 306.0132 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 29.07153249 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 32.62540543 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Z -0.93001569 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00200815 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00172850 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00005897 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.70854624 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 42.72638647 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 7.57
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15VY172. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15VY172) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 11 17.38513 03 04 11.238 +16 02 11.05 23.8r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 17.49897 03 04 10.693 +16 02 08.81 23.5r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 19.28749 03 04 02.290 +16 01 34.93 23.8r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2014 11 23.39103 03 03 43.197 +16 00 18.58 23.8r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 08 11.59273 03 13 47.092 +16 43 59.32 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 09 06.62350 03 13 42.735 +16 43 05.55 24.2w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 09 12.51312 03 13 33.418 +16 42 21.25 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.43992 03 12 23.835 +16 37 20.55 24.7w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 07.44703 03 12 23.810 +16 37 20.68 24.8w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.45165 03 12 20.109 +16 37 05.32 24.6w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 10 08.51072 03 12 19.866 +16 37 04.09 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.35903 03 10 10.180 +16 28 18.25 24.1r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.40112 03 10 09.977 +16 28 17.42 23.9r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 07.44330 03 10 09.772 +16 28 16.66 23.6r 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 10.52886 03 09 55.083 +16 27 18.23 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.37547 03 09 22.470 +16 25 09.53 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 11 17.42215 03 09 22.242 +16 25 08.71 24.5w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 06.38432 03 07 55.830 +16 19 34.12 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.31874 03 07 27.362 +16 17 46.61 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2015 12 13.37723 03 07 27.124 +16 17 45.68 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 01.37186 03 06 23.718 +16 13 55.67 24.3w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 01 07.31862 03 06 09.249 +16 13 07.07 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.29505 03 05 43.108 +16 12 15.20 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 04.30157 03 05 43.125 +16 12 15.21 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 02 10.28486 03 05 47.084 +16 12 43.75 24.1w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 06.60560 03 18 49.688 +17 04 43.54 24.4w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 09 26.59656 03 18 07.205 +17 01 38.01 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.40230 03 17 20.589 +16 58 27.39 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 10.46065 03 17 20.364 +16 58 26.50 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 27.49100 03 16 08.654 +16 53 41.98 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 10 27.49679 03 16 08.629 +16 53 41.91 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 02.59707 03 15 40.420 +16 51 51.83 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 02.60285 03 15 40.390 +16 51 51.59 23.9w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 03.51606 03 15 36.104 +16 51 34.99 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 11 03.52184 03 15 36.071 +16 51 34.90 24.1w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2016 12 24.29598 03 11 53.801 +16 37 42.18 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 02.39822 03 11 26.623 +16 36 08.74 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 26.28489 03 10 47.979 +16 34 19.30 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2017 01 26.32220 03 10 47.956 +16 34 19.28 24.0w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 23.57901 03 23 26.811 +17 23 39.55 24.5w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2017 09 23.58734 03 23 26.797 +17 23 39.05 24.8w 15VY172 568 C~2nwF 2019 10 26.248320 03 31 58.562 +17 57 57.77 24.0G 15VY172 G37 C~3cuO 2019 10 26.339080 03 31 58.171 +17 57 56.17 15VY172 G37 C~3cuO 2019 10 26.436070 03 31 57.725 +17 57 54.56 15VY172 G37 C~3cuO 2024 12 31.099370 03 53 32.795 +19 19 07.37 23.8G 15VY172 G37 C~8cQu 2024 12 31.150680 03 53 32.602 +19 19 06.82 15VY172 G37 C~8cQu 2024 12 31.201510 03 53 32.420 +19 19 06.24 15VY172 G37 C~8cQu
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01
2 0.0003 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.08
3 0.0052 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.14
4 0.0164 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
5 0.7316 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.01
6 0.8028 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.01
7 0.8190 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01
8 0.8872 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.22
9 0.8872 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.01
10 0.8900 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03
11 0.8901 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.29
12 0.9719 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.17
13 0.9720 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.12
14 0.9721 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.16
15 0.9805 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01
16 0.9993 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.01
17 0.9994 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
18 1.0513 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.01
19 1.0703 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
20 1.0705 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05
21 1.1225 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.01
22 1.1388 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.10
23 1.2154 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.08
24 1.2154 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.07
25 1.2318 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.04
26 1.8048 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01
27 1.8596 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00
28 1.8974 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02
29 1.8975 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01
30 1.9442 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.00
31 1.9442 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.03
32 1.9609 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.06
33 1.9609 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.07
34 1.9634 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.00
35 1.9634 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01
36 2.1024 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.02
37 2.1273 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.03
38 2.1927 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
39 2.1928 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
40 2.8506 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.27
41 2.8507 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.14
42 4.9387 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.11
43 4.9390 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.07
44 4.9392 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.14
45 10.1211 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
46 10.1212 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.00
47 10.1213 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.09
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15VY172 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 45.766 45.766 45.766 ecceobj 0.046 0.046 0.046 incobj 1.749 1.749 1.749 qmin 42.623 42.619 42.617 qmax 48.430 48.428 48.409 amean 45.404 45.404 45.404 amin 45.048 45.053 45.047 amax 45.786 45.789 45.773 emean 0.044 0.044 0.044 emin 0.031 0.031 0.031 emax 0.058 0.058 0.058 imean 0.409 0.409 0.409 imin 0.267 0.267 0.267 imax 0.536 0.536 0.536 excite_mean 0.045 0.045 0.045 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.116 3.116 3.116 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 152.0 152.0 152.0 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0