The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 21BK15
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:11:08 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 9 observations of 9
# Arc: 2.21y
# First observation: 2020/01/24
# Last observation: 2022/04/09
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000002 0.012402 -0.000001 0.001549 0.017138 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 1.68 DOF: 12 RMS: 0.08
# Min/Max residuals: -0.11 0.14
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.101631E-05 1.234582E-02 1.544649E-06 1.541039E-03 1.706459E-02 -4.902465E-03
# Covariance matrix:
7.1063E-13 -1.5757E-12 5.7372E-14 -2.1331E-13 -1.3495E-12 -7.1638E-11
-1.5757E-12 8.5272E-12 -3.9049E-13 1.4644E-12 8.4844E-12 5.0020E-10
5.7372E-14 -3.9049E-13 5.2571E-13 -3.9198E-13 -3.9287E-13 -2.4551E-11
-2.1331E-13 1.4644E-12 -3.9198E-13 5.6706E-13 1.4651E-12 9.2757E-11
-1.3495E-12 8.4844E-12 -3.9287E-13 1.4651E-12 8.9962E-12 4.9498E-10
-7.1638E-11 5.0020E-10 -2.4551E-11 9.2757E-11 4.9498E-10 3.2140E-08
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
9.337862 143.690045 0.341907 0.151229 -0.919641 2458872.912701
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2458870.5000 = 2020/01/22
Mean Anomaly: 279.69282 +/- 2.071
Argument of Peri: 175.27967 +/- 0.916
Long of Asc Node: 91.57339 +/- 0.013
Inclination: 11.63922 +/- 0.002
Eccentricity: 0.38217644 +/- 0.0097
Semi-Major Axis: 55.22002216 +/- 0.4825
Time of Perihelion: 2492305.0262 +/- 742.6
Perihelion: 34.11623076 +/- 0.6152
Aphelion: 76.32381355 +/- 0.8569
Period (y) 410.3487 +/- 5.38
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -47.14126261 +/- 0.0082
Ecliptic Y 35.06034963 +/- 0.0060
Ecliptic Z 9.50839209 +/- 0.0017
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00050687 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00207728 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00011612 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 59.51416871 +/- 0.0074
Geocenter to KBO 58.60088012 +/- 0.0103
# Hcoef: 7.27
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21BK15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21BK15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2020 01 24.41190 09 57 19.353 +22 24 49.14 24.9r 21BK15 568 C~6DKf 2020 01 24.65187 09 57 18.531 +22 24 54.48 24.8r 21BK15 568 C~6DKf 2021 01 18.27881 10 00 36.882 +22 13 01.13 24.9r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2021 01 18.33694 10 00 36.680 +22 13 02.32 25.0r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2021 01 19.33255 10 00 33.556 +22 13 24.32 24.9r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2021 03 17.15442 09 57 14.518 +22 30 49.90 25.0r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2021 03 18.15393 09 57 11.380 +22 31 01.18 25.0r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2022 04 08.10028 09 59 16.491 +22 23 48.89 24.9r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf 2022 04 09.10253 09 59 14.329 +22 23 52.60 24.9r 21BK15 304 C~6DKf
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.02
2 0.0007 -12.54 -0.10 1.06 0.07
3 0.9853 2815.86 0.14 294.03 0.05
4 0.9854 2812.82 -0.05 294.16 -0.11
5 0.9881 2764.46 -0.08 299.49 0.05
6 1.1437 -187.93 0.06 315.15 -0.04
7 1.1465 -232.63 -0.04 310.67 -0.05
8 2.2031 1543.75 0.02 509.25 -0.08
9 2.2059 1514.36 -0.04 502.24 0.13
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
21BK15 quality flag:2 Type: 5:2EEE SCATNEAR SCATNEAR Type: 5:2EII axisobj 55.243 56.664 54.022 ecceobj 0.376 0.404 0.349 incobj 11.591 11.587 11.595 qmin 33.755 32.504 34.160 qmax 78.085 84.800 76.869 amean 55.462 56.754 54.866 amin 54.853 54.643 53.707 amax 56.280 59.058 55.854 emean 0.378 0.410 0.360 emin 0.364 0.378 0.342 emax 0.390 0.437 0.377 imean 10.374 8.718 8.992 imin 10.010 7.289 7.886 imax 11.022 10.376 10.133 excite_mean 0.419 0.437 0.392 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.015 3.006 3.037 libcent 0 179.6 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 36.4 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 198.5 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 66.1 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 190.2 170.4 187.4 kozaiamp 16.9 180.0 180.0