Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 21DP15

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 21DP15    
# Created Wed Dec 25 02:11:12 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     12 observations of     12
# Arc:   3.75y
# First observation: 2018/03/08
#  Last observation: 2021/12/07
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
   0.000068   0.007222   0.000001   0.000263   0.012750   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:     4.95 DOF:     18 RMS:  0.11
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.20    0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  8.996084E-06  7.309008E-03 -5.177437E-07  2.657970E-04  1.278575E-02  2.146304E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  6.5996E-13 -4.0172E-13  2.7745E-15 -7.8122E-15 -3.3992E-13 -7.9521E-12
 -4.0172E-13  4.5145E-13 -4.6169E-15  1.1934E-14  4.1483E-13  1.1943E-11
  2.7745E-15 -4.6169E-15  4.9856E-13 -1.6202E-13 -4.0756E-15 -1.3920E-13
 -7.8122E-15  1.1934E-14 -1.6202E-13  7.0276E-14  1.5273E-14  3.8646E-13
 -3.3992E-13  4.1483E-13 -4.0756E-15  1.5273E-14  1.0367E-12  1.6277E-11
 -7.9521E-12  1.1943E-11 -1.3920E-13  3.8646E-13  1.6277E-11  3.9232E-10
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
   -2.940040  122.453874   -0.693656   -0.036267   -0.709101  2458185.555752
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2458180.5000  =  2018/03/03
Mean Anomaly:          121.29746 +/-     0.271
Argument of Peri:      154.50615 +/-     0.215
Long of Asc Node:      177.27225 +/-     0.027
Inclination:             3.58590 +/-     0.001
Eccentricity:         0.40155403 +/-    0.0009
Semi-Major Axis:     61.00422790 +/-    0.0440
Time of Perihelion: 2399541.3695 +/-     114.8
Perihelion:          36.50773417 +/-    0.0602
Aphelion:            85.50072163 +/-    0.0820
Period (y)              476.4838 +/-      0.52
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -42.88328129 +/-    0.0034
Ecliptic Y           66.13040797 +/-    0.0052
Ecliptic Z           -4.01164542 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00156224 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00045464 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00003312 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   78.91957914 +/-    0.0048
Geocenter to KBO     78.21206198 +/-    0.0062
# Hcoef:  5.80

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 21DP15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (21DP15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2018 03  08.054951 08 16 07.62   +16 44 50.8   23.9r 21DP15    W84  C~5zHK      
2018 03  08.057014 08 16 07.61   +16 44 50.5   24.1r 21DP15    W84  C~5zHK      
2019 02  28.130069 08 18 07.30   +16 38 56.9   24.6V 21DP15    W84  C~5zHK      
2019 12  31.291072 08 22 27.58   +16 24 52.8   24.5V 21DP15    W84  C~5zHK      
2019 12  31.293140 08 22 27.59   +16 24 52.8   24.5V 21DP15    W84  C~5zHK      
2021 02  16.32869  08 21 57.884  +16 27 37.76  25.0r 21DP15    568  C~5Jzg      
2021 02  16.42953  08 21 57.627  +16 27 38.73  24.9r 21DP15    568  C~5Jzg      
2021 04  06.00585  08 20 34.463  +16 33 51.08  25.2r 21DP15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 04  07.00844  08 20 33.828  +16 33 55.21  25.3r 21DP15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 12  06.26914  08 26 42.087  +16 12 35.81  25.1r 21DP15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 12  06.33038  08 26 41.970  +16 12 35.83  25.1r 21DP15    304  C~5Jzg      
2021 12  07.28730  08 26 40.312  +16 12 40.25  25.0r 21DP15    304  C~5Jzg      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.17
     2   0.0000     -0.07    -0.00      -0.32    -0.15
     3   0.9776   1755.11    -0.00      40.50    -0.14
     4   1.8158   5593.12    -0.14      71.91     0.03
     5   1.8158   5593.26     0.08      71.94     0.06
     6   2.9467   5139.07     0.07     134.06    -0.03
     7   2.9470   5135.24     0.15     134.16    -0.03
     8   3.0799   3885.13    -0.03     222.53     0.32
     9   3.0827   3875.30    -0.11     224.46    -0.04
    10   3.7487   9332.89     0.05     209.53     0.07
    11   3.7489   9331.24    -0.03     209.15    -0.20
    12   3.7515   9306.94    -0.06     207.82    -0.06

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

21DP15    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        61.417    61.551    61.288
ecceobj         0.402     0.405     0.400
incobj          3.604     3.603     3.603
qmin           35.912    35.881    35.981
qmax           89.111    88.029    88.647
amean          61.445    60.986    61.173
amin           60.274    59.875    60.125
amax           62.787    62.258    62.611
emean           0.404     0.399     0.399
emin            0.391     0.386     0.385
emax            0.419     0.414     0.416
imean           3.832     3.815     3.712
imin            3.345     3.345     3.331
imax            4.391     4.326     4.159
excite_mean     0.409     0.405     0.404
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.098     3.097     3.100

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       185.7     179.0     178.2
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     180.0