The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 24AW15 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:11:26 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 40 observations of 40 # Arc: 17.30y # First observation: 2006/10/31 # Last observation: 2024/02/17 # Chi-squared of fit: 30.24 DOF: 74 RMS: 0.15 # Min/Max residuals: -0.61 0.38 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.030586E-05 4.729268E-02 1.093030E-06 1.896034E-03 3.592947E-02 6.207088E-03 # Covariance matrix: 3.6716E-13 -4.5284E-14 6.1817E-16 -9.8048E-16 -1.0525E-14 -2.7801E-14 -4.5284E-14 5.6096E-14 -1.4190E-15 2.1175E-15 6.5159E-14 5.9911E-14 6.1817E-16 -1.4190E-15 3.5249E-13 -2.1123E-14 -1.7371E-15 -1.5512E-15 -9.8048E-16 2.1175E-15 -2.1123E-14 1.4862E-15 2.3255E-15 2.3332E-15 -1.0525E-14 6.5159E-14 -1.7371E-15 2.3255E-15 1.6180E-13 6.5525E-14 -2.7801E-14 5.9911E-14 -1.5512E-15 2.3332E-15 6.5525E-14 6.6034E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -3.778551 82.251414 0.697157 -0.046881 -0.711514 2454039.981108 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2454040.5000 = 2006/11/01 Mean Anomaly: 14.58818 +/- 3.242 Argument of Peri: 273.38830 +/- 0.000 Long of Asc Node: 140.13817 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 4.28266 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.29049953 +/- 0.0003 Semi-Major Axis: 39.23113903 +/- 0.0007 Time of Perihelion: 2450403.4986 +/- 808.4 Perihelion: 27.83451164 +/- 0.0110 Aphelion: 50.62776643 +/- 0.0110 Period (y) 245.7280 +/- 0.01 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 4.52807073 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic Y 28.12700282 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic Z -1.83413084 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00350091 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00095855 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00011294 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 28.54806928 +/- 0.0008 Geocenter to KBO 27.83226140 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 7.32
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 24AW15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (24AW15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2006 10 31.480354 05 27 11.47 +19 26 25.4 22.1r 24AW15 645 C~7nDJ 2006 10 31.481183 05 27 11.45 +19 26 25.4 21.4i 24AW15 645 C~7nDJ 2006 10 31.482841 05 27 11.45 +19 26 25.6 21.3z 24AW15 645 C~7nDJ 2006 10 31.483671 05 27 11.45 +19 26 25.3 22.4g 24AW15 645 C~7nDJ 2020 12 24.537098 07 49 39.163 +19 08 59.63 22.6G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2020 12 24.550667 07 49 39.074 +19 08 59.86 22.6G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2020 12 24.564208 07 49 38.984 +19 09 00.24 22.7G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2020 12 24.577816 07 49 38.904 +19 09 00.29 22.1G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 09.256178 07 44 40.413 +19 23 05.16 22.6G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 09.268948 07 44 40.347 +19 23 05.85 22.1G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 13.255623 07 44 17.714 +19 24 15.87 21.8G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 13.269241 07 44 17.666 +19 24 16.06 22.2G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 13.282802 07 44 17.567 +19 24 16.29 22.2G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2021 02 13.296450 07 44 17.505 +19 24 16.44 22.6G 24AW15 F51 C~7nDJ 2023 11 18.548098 08 19 04.582 +18 09 30.27 21.4G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 11 18.560319 08 19 04.564 +18 09 30.36 21.4G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 11 18.572615 08 19 04.556 +18 09 30.46 21.6G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 11 18.585019 08 19 04.518 +18 09 30.60 21.4G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 12 07.475566 08 18 11.591 +18 12 09.46 22.0G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 12 07.487156 08 18 11.541 +18 12 09.56 22.3G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 12 07.498815 08 18 11.486 +18 12 09.66 22.2G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2023 12 07.510415 08 18 11.450 +18 12 09.81 22.5G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 01 10.73362 08 15 11.55 +18 22 00.9 22.4w 24AW15 O18 C~7nDJ 2024 01 10.74230 08 15 11.49 +18 22 01.1 22.1w 24AW15 O18 C~7nDJ 2024 01 10.75103 08 15 11.43 +18 22 01.1 22.6w 24AW15 O18 C~7nDJ 2024 01 14.95653 08 14 44.943 +18 23 30.89 22.3G 24AW15 088 C~7nDJ 2024 01 14.97454 08 14 44.844 +18 23 31.54 21.8G 24AW15 088 C~7nDJ 2024 01 14.99149 08 14 44.761 +18 23 31.73 22.0G 24AW15 088 C~7nDJ 2024 01 31.473389 08 12 59.665 +18 29 33.34 21.8G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 01 31.485778 08 12 59.587 +18 29 33.95 22.1G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 01 31.498243 08 12 59.519 +18 29 34.12 22.1G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 01 31.510596 08 12 59.428 +18 29 34.09 21.8G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 02 07.313416 08 12 17.293 +18 32 02.44 22.7G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 02 07.326336 08 12 17.184 +18 32 02.71 22.9G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 02 07.439823 08 12 16.523 +18 32 05.12 22.3G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 02 07.440642 08 12 16.517 +18 32 05.49 23.2G 24AW15 F52 C~7nDJ 2024 02 17.163515 08 11 19.860 +18 35 28.10 22.2G 24AW15 V06 C~7nDJ 2024 02 17.193605 08 11 19.720 +18 35 28.70 21.9G 24AW15 V06 C~7nDJ 2024 02 17.389282 08 11 18.590 +18 35 32.70 23.0G 24AW15 V06 C~7nDJ 2024 02 17.418933 08 11 18.430 +18 35 33.30 22.9G 24AW15 V06 C~7nDJ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.05
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.04
3 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.17
4 0.0000 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.12
5 14.1494 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.02
6 14.1494 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.00
7 14.1494 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.16
8 14.1495 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00
9 14.2773 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.42
10 14.2773 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.04
11 14.2882 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.16
12 14.2883 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.11
13 14.2883 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.10
14 14.2883 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.02
15 17.0488 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.01
16 17.0488 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.05
17 17.0488 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.09
18 17.0489 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.17
19 17.1006 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.02
20 17.1006 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
21 17.1007 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.07
22 17.1007 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.07
23 17.1944 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.04
24 17.1944 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02
25 17.1944 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.21
26 17.2060 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.09
27 17.2060 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.17
28 17.2061 0.00 0.34 0.00 -0.00
29 17.2512 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.12
30 17.2512 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.22
31 17.2512 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.11
32 17.2513 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.18
33 17.2699 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.05
34 17.2699 0.00 -0.61 0.00 0.04
35 17.2703 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
36 17.2703 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.36
37 17.2969 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.19
38 17.2970 0.00 0.38 0.00 -0.20
39 17.2975 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.12
40 17.2976 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
24AW15 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.827 39.827 39.827 ecceobj 0.301 0.301 0.301 incobj 4.283 4.283 4.283 qmin 27.483 27.483 27.483 qmax 52.020 52.019 52.021 amean 39.455 39.455 39.455 amin 39.045 39.045 39.045 amax 39.993 39.993 39.992 emean 0.288 0.288 0.288 emin 0.275 0.275 0.275 emax 0.302 0.302 0.302 imean 3.452 3.452 3.452 imin 2.959 2.959 2.959 imax 3.997 3.997 3.997 excite_mean 0.294 0.294 0.294 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.951 2.951 2.951 libcent 0 180.0 180.0 180.0 libamp 0 57.1 57.1 57.1 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 170.6 170.6 170.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9