The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 24XS15 # Created Tue Jan 21 02:11:45 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 31 observations of 31 # Arc: 14.90d # First observation: 2024/11/22 # Last observation: 2024/12/07 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000031 0.940259 0.000027 0.419568 0.260287 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 93.37 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.31 # Min/Max residuals: -0.52 0.81 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 4.888142E-05 7.573212E-01 3.015043E-05 4.211533E-01 2.318510E-01 1.181999E-02 # Covariance matrix: 7.0387E-13 3.4928E-09 1.0061E-13 -5.6616E-12 5.5248E-10 -2.9720E-11 3.4928E-09 4.2156E-05 1.9684E-09 -1.8831E-07 6.6188E-06 -6.9339E-06 1.0061E-13 1.9684E-09 4.3493E-13 -2.3753E-11 3.0749E-10 -6.4506E-10 -5.6616E-12 -1.8831E-07 -2.3753E-11 2.0924E-09 -2.9319E-08 8.1959E-08 5.5248E-10 6.6188E-06 3.0749E-10 -2.9319E-08 1.0393E-06 -1.0751E-06 -2.9720E-11 -6.9339E-06 -6.4506E-10 8.1959E-08 -1.0751E-06 3.9308E-06 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.580355 66.072197 0.094574 -0.044066 -0.974951 2460637.033874 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2460630.5000 = 2024/11/16 Mean Anomaly: 359.98346 +/- 0.009 Argument of Peri: 355.47587 +/- 0.280 Long of Asc Node: 68.79378 +/- 0.026 Inclination: 29.07659 +/- 0.209 Eccentricity: 0.87694908 +/- 0.0012 Semi-Major Axis: 43.03850413 +/- 0.2764 Time of Perihelion: 2460635.2386 +/- 2.7 Perihelion: 5.29592759 +/- 0.0629 Aphelion: 80.78108067 +/- 0.5215 Period (y) 282.3540 +/- 2.72 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 2.23565661 +/- 0.0077 Ecliptic Y 4.79699596 +/- 0.0173 Ecliptic Z -0.19410354 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00803398 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00396338 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00496204 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 5.29594250 +/- 0.0160 Geocenter to KBO 4.31311425 +/- 0.0190 # Hcoef: 15.60
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 24XS15. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (24XS15) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2024 11 22.533073 04 18 38.918 +18 46 44.02 21.7G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 11 22.545303 04 18 38.475 +18 46 46.37 21.8G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 11 22.569617 04 18 37.715 +18 46 49.93 21.7G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 11 27.480070 04 16 05.818 +19 00 10.79 23.1G 24XS15 F51 C~8WsH 2024 11 27.492881 04 16 05.435 +19 00 13.37 21.6G 24XS15 F51 C~8WsH 2024 11 27.518385 04 16 04.606 +19 00 17.45 22.1G 24XS15 F51 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.311173 04 13 35.789 +19 13 24.53 21.8G 24XS15 V00 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.316781 04 13 35.591 +19 13 25.39 22.9G 24XS15 V00 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.322386 04 13 35.440 +19 13 26.40 22.3G 24XS15 V00 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.327993 04 13 35.252 +19 13 27.59 22.2G 24XS15 V00 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.369930 04 13 33.890 +19 13 34.60 22.4R 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.381480 04 13 33.530 +19 13 36.30 22.6R 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 02.393030 04 13 33.190 +19 13 38.00 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 03.12991 04 13 10.63 +19 15 39.4 23.4G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 03.15020 04 13 09.97 +19 15 42.5 22.2G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 03.17054 04 13 09.33 +19 15 46.3 22.3G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 04.12393 04 12 40.02 +19 18 23.7 22.6G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 04.14211 04 12 39.45 +19 18 27.2 21.9G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 05.214940 04 12 06.530 +19 21 24.80 22.3R 24XS15 691 C~8WsH 2024 12 05.232575 04 12 06.000 +19 21 27.60 22.3R 24XS15 691 C~8WsH 2024 12 05.250200 04 12 05.400 +19 21 30.40 22.6R 24XS15 691 C~8WsH 2024 12 06.35927 04 11 31.57 +19 24 34.6 22.6G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 06.37803 04 11 31.02 +19 24 37.4 22.2G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.326141 04 11 02.436 +19 27 15.47 22.7G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.32894 04 11 02.29 +19 27 15.6 22.3G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.337047 04 11 02.128 +19 27 17.43 21.9G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.34553 04 11 01.75 +19 27 18.4 22.2G 24XS15 291 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.347989 04 11 01.774 +19 27 19.31 22.1G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.358970 04 11 01.443 +19 27 21.11 22.1G 24XS15 F52 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.435015 04 10 59.086 +19 27 33.69 22.1G 24XS15 F51 C~8WsH 2024 12 07.435830 04 10 59.054 +19 27 34.07 22.5G 24XS15 F51 C~8WsH
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.57 0.00 -0.29
2 0.0000 -5.80 -0.19 3.39 0.23
3 0.0001 -15.83 -0.23 8.74 -0.10
4 0.0135 -2001.53 -0.36 1168.87 -0.40
5 0.0136 -2006.43 0.09 1172.36 0.03
6 0.0136 -2017.30 -0.15 1178.42 0.02
7 0.0268 -3955.92 0.63 2324.22 0.26
8 0.0268 -3958.53 0.34 2325.57 0.25
9 0.0268 -3960.46 0.73 2326.94 0.27
10 0.0268 -3962.87 0.63 2328.59 0.57
11 0.0269 -3980.62 0.17 2338.91 0.81
12 0.0270 -3985.33 0.21 2341.49 0.61
13 0.0270 -3989.77 0.52 2344.02 0.38
14 0.0290 -4282.75 0.09 2520.39 -0.28
15 0.0291 -4291.40 -0.30 2525.11 -0.52
16 0.0291 -4299.64 -0.25 2530.46 -0.13
17 0.0317 -4680.12 0.03 2759.53 -0.18
18 0.0318 -4687.44 0.07 2764.42 0.26
19 0.0347 -5114.36 0.02 3022.84 0.13
20 0.0348 -5121.24 0.29 3026.94 -0.07
21 0.0348 -5129.09 -0.40 3031.22 -0.08
22 0.0379 -5567.20 -0.02 3298.82 0.15
23 0.0379 -5574.36 0.37 3302.99 -0.20
24 0.0405 -5943.85 -0.18 3531.78 -0.08
25 0.0405 -5945.86 0.36 3532.28 -0.14
26 0.0405 -5947.78 0.25 3534.50 -0.03
27 0.0406 -5952.87 -0.02 3536.42 -0.01
28 0.0406 -5952.37 0.04 3537.26 0.06
29 0.0406 -5956.65 0.16 3539.88 -0.00
30 0.0408 -5987.19 0.12 3558.31 -0.07
31 0.0408 -5987.57 0.07 3558.77 0.19
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
24XS15 quality flag:1 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 35.456 38.202 33.146 ecceobj 0.851 0.855 0.849 incobj 29.177 28.847 29.428 qmin 5.065 5.301 5.004 qmax 318.745 104.540 61.288 amean 90.751 29.389 33.146 amin 20.592 13.815 33.146 amax 161.964 55.155 33.146 emean 0.916 0.782 0.849 emin 0.743 0.603 0.849 emax 0.968 0.896 0.849 imean 27.093 28.389 28.183 imin 25.675 27.143 28.183 imax 28.638 30.788 28.183 excite_mean 1.024 0.917 0.972 fracstop 0.006 0.010 0.000 cjmean 1.506 2.181 1.882 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 290.9 44.5 356.6 kozaiamp 179.3 178.8 0.0